Fiery Future

Last year’s Canadian fires and the giant one burning in Texas right now are warning signs. Get ready for more.

Here in Texas, we do everything bigger, including our brushfires. The still-burning Smokehouse Creek fire in the Panhandle charred over a million acres, destroyed many homes and killed at least two people plus countless animals.

This was not a natural disaster. Investigators already found a decayed wooden utility pole that had fallen, with sparks then igniting the dry brush. And because it was in such a remote area, no one noticed until the fire was out of control.

That’s bad news for the utility company that will probably pay out millions in damages, but it ought to alarm everyone. Poles like that are everywhere, many are old, and they’re getting even older while the climate changes around them.

Image: PublicDomainPictures.net

Nor are power poles the only ignition source. Lightning, sparks from power tools, vehicle exhaust, a dropped cigarette – any of those plus high temperatures and low humidity can start a small fire. Add high winds to blow burning debris, and they can get out of control quickly.

The problem isn’t entirely climate change. Humans are also spreading into once-wild areas we previously left unoccupied. But the climate does seem to be changing in ways that make it all worse.

Global temperatures are certainly rising:

Chart: Financial Times

In Texas, our official state climatologist (yes, we have one) expects by 2036 the average temperature will run 3.0 degrees F warmer than the 1950-1999 average, and the number of 100 degree days will nearly double.

Combine that with drought and falling aquifer levels and even drier conditions are likely - so we should expect more and bigger wildfires.

I don’t think Texas is unique in this. Other states could be in even worse shape. What happened in Canada last year should be a warning.

This concerns me personally because my home is in a vulnerable area outside Austin. Improving our fire defenses is one of my top goals this year. I want to protect the property as best we can and be ready to leave quickly if necessary. (How? I’ll share more in future articles.)

But here’s the worst part. It’s not just Texas and not just fires.

Everything humans have built was designed for climate conditions that no longer exist. Our homes, roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, harbors, utility services, all our infrastructure was built on the assumption future weather extremes would look much like past extremes.

Was that a good assumption? Back then, maybe so. Not anymore.

Living in a place where wildfires are unlikely doesn’t mean you are safe. If, for instance, you live downstream from a dam built 50+ years ago to withstand what was then thought to be a once-in-a-century storm scenario, you should think about flood risk.

Wherever you may be, you are vulnerable to climate change impact. We have screwed up on a global scale, so we are going to have global problems.

This leaves three choices:

·         Deny anything new is happening, or

·         Believe it and do nothing, or

·         Believe it and get ready.

How do you get ready? Identify your vulnerabilities, plan ways to minimize them, then go on with life.

We can adapt. But the longer we wait, the harder it will be.